The 2024 draft class has been projected to be a historic one—and not in a good way. The top of the class lacks the obvious star, forcing/allowing scouts and front offices to find their best prospect and stick to philosophy. With the top of this crop lacking the glaring star power, it’s widely believed that teams will have to find players with a clearly defined NBA skill—perhaps leaning more on production over potential.
There are plenty of ways to analyze the “production vs. potential” debate—a debate that is the draft community’s version of Jordan vs. LeBron—but what should be considered even more is analyzing what is working in the NBA. Any scout that is worth their keep has looked at trends that the league has produced. I’ve done this for the past two draft classes here in my “Looking for What Works” pieces here at No Ceilings.
In these pieces, I’ve looked at five player types that have had the highest hit rates in the five previous draft classes. The most successful player types over the last five years are as follows:
Utility Forwards
Floor Spacing Guards
Total Package Scorers
Jumbo Creators
Malleable Bigs
For teams picking outside of the lottery, it would be safe to imagine those organizations looking to draft players that fit within the higher hit rates. Floor spacing has been highly valued for quite a while—especially when paired with size. During draft night, the combination of size and shooting typically evaporates as the night moves on.
Knowing all of this, it would make sense to draft a 6’7” wing player who shot just under 38% from deep on over seven attempts per game, yes? How about one that put up those numbers while shooting over 91% from the free throw line? What if those numbers were just the tip of the iceberg?
If you answered yes to these rhetorical questions, then Payton Sandfort may be the prospect for you.
Analytics have been at the forefront of many online discussions lately, specifically on how one can project a player based on their numbers. Of course numbers don’t tell the full story, but you can still use them to compare players—much in the same way you can in watching the game. All data is just that: data. But you need data to formulate hypotheses. Let’s check out what Payton has done on the year individually before we stack them up against his peers and the pros.
Minutes Percentage - 75.9
BPM - 7.3
Offensive Rating - 121.6
Usage Percentage - 22.6
Effective Field Goal Percentage - 56.2
True Shooting Percentage - 60.8
Offensive Rebounding Percentage - 4.5
Defensive Rebounding Percentage - 19.2
Assist Percentage - 15.4
Turnover Percentage - 10.6
Assist:Turnover- 2.0
Block Percentage - 1.4
Steals Percentage - 1.3
Free Throw Rate - 27.7
Dunks - 1
Two Point Percentage - 55.1 (86/156)
Three Point Percentage - 37.9 (94/248)
Payton quietly played under the proverbial shadow of various Hawkeyes of recent seasons, but his game was plenty loud. When looking at his numbers, it’s clear to see that Sandfort is an efficient offensive player. He reached his splits of 45/38/91 on about twelve shots per contest while putting up 16.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 2.7 APG. This well-rounded scoring attack was not enough to propel Iowa into March Madness, but he was able to have a good outing in their NIT run.
Let’s see how Payton fared against some fellow collegiate prospects:
This grouping of players all had strong offensive seasons for their respective clubs this year—two played in the Final Four. Sandfort doesn’t have the highest three point percentage of this group, but he did put up the most attempts by a strong margin. Let’s check out how he compares to the players that hooped before him:
The filters applied here are more definitive than those that were applied earlier. This was done to highlight more easily translatable NBA skills for players who are highly skilled on offense. These were the following offensive filters:
Minutes Percentage - At least 75
BPM - At least 7
Offensive Rating - At least 120
Usage Percentage - At least 22
Effective Field Goal Percentage - At least 55
True Shooting Percentage - At least 60
Assist Percentage - At least 15
Turnover Percentage - No higher than 20
Two Point Percentage - At least 50
Three Point Percentage - At least 37
On top of these players being highly effective offensive players, there were also filters applied for rebounding, steal, and block percentage. These metrics typically travel well for draft prospects—particularly rebounding.
The point of this analytical crunch is to show that Payton Sandfort compares well to players who make it to the league on paper. Next, we’ll take a look at how he looks on film.
The Dive
Breadcrumbs that Payton Sandfort was going to be a strong offensive presence in college trail back to his freshman year for Iowa in the 2021-2022 season. During his freshman year, Payton was in the 80th percentile (Very Good) in overall offense on 168 possessions. During his next season, Sandfort ranked in the 84th percentile on 326 total possessions. This year he is in the 94th percentile on 496 possessions. Watching him play with the Murray twins in his first year, he played a more limited supporting role where he was in the 60th percentile (Good) on spot-ups, in the 71st (Very Good) percentile coming off of screens, and in the 69th percentile (Very Good) on cuts.
Payton went from role-playing freshman to the fourth-leading scorer for the Hawkeyes as a sophom*ore—with Kris Murray stepping into the featured star role. His spot-up efficiency jumped to the 66th percentile (Very Good), and he was featured in more handoff actions—grading out in the 84th percentile (Excellent). This year as the guy, Payton has made a leap indicative of a future NBA player.
The Offense
To start, Sandfort does his best work in the halfcourt, where he ranks in the 96th percentile (Excellent). This makes sense for a spot up player that makes good decisions with the ball as a connective passer. His transition play isn’t graded the highest—56th percentile (Good)—he does play well within himself within an aspect of the game he played in less than 25% of his time.
Shooting
Sometimes, the analysis is as simple as this: Sandfort is a flat-out, ridiculous shooter. We’ve looked at his impressive percentage from deep, but it’s also worth noting that his near-38% from deep came about while he was one of only 66 players in all of college hoops who attempted at least 230 shots from distance. He was also 40th in three-pointers per 100 possessions, with 13.1. Within that same group, Payton is one of only 12 players that measures at least 6’6”. That group also only has five non-seniors, which obviously includes our guy.
Needless to say, Sandfort is on a short list of players who can space the floor. We’ve already touched on the improvements Payton has taken as a spot up player, but this year he ranked in the 98th percentile (Excellent) in said category. This included being in the 80th percentile (Very Good) on guarded jumpers, and in the 65th (Good) when left alone.
In this matchup against Ohio State, you can quickly see how Sandfort can contribute to a team. Payton consistently moves around the perimeter—never occupying the same space as a teammate. In this one possession, we get to see Payton operate along almost the entire three-point line, running off of off-ball screens, and understand where his defender is at all times. What’s impressive is how he presents himself open—even down to the last five seconds that remain on the shot clock.
The timing of his entire motion is quick, with a nice, high release. The shot prep is a thing of beauty, as Payton doesn’t have to relocate either of his feet, and there is no wasted motion in the gather into his shooting motion. It’s effortless.
Against Illinois, we get to see how quickly Payton can catch a shot and release it while moving. In this BLOB play, there isn’t anything particularly special in the play Iowa runs to get Sandfort a shot. Illinois’s Marcus Domask (#3) is assigned to defend Payton, but is screened by Owen Freeman (#32). Once our our guy runs off the screen, he catches the ball and fires the shot off in roughly one second.
Nothing special is run to get Payton a clean look, which speaks to his quick release, size, and ability to convert movement shots.
One of the things that stands out with Payton is—not only is he a floor spacer, but he is capable of hitting big time shots when it matters the most. In this game against Indiana, we have this moment where the game is knotted up with under two minutes to go. Iowa looks to go to their top shooter, and Indiana knows it’s coming. What’s crazy about this play is where the shot comes from.
Sandfort starts off on the same side of the court as the inbound passer. He runs a shallow cut with Tony Perkins and then runs through a stagger screen on the opposite side of the court. Following a beautiful pass, Payton catches the ball in the left corner. The fact that Payton catches the ball, refuses to dip it down into a natural shooting motion, and can still drill the three speaks to his confidence and the work he has put into being a premier long-range shooter.
Decision Making
There have been some solid strides made in the processing of Payton over the years. This season, Payton has posted his highest minutes percentage of his career, and has posted his second consecutive season with an assist:turnover ratio of at least 2.0. He also ranks in the 90th percentile (Excellent) in possession including assists.
One of the first things scouts often discuss with shooters in today’s NBA is: what else can they do? When that player is chased off of the line, can they make smart decisions with the ball? Are they able to handle some level of physicality? Are they athletic enough to make moves? Can they rebound? These areas of a player’s profile help sift out who is most likely to separate themself from their peers.
This play shown against Northwestern gives a nod to the thought to the “connective passer” player type that exists with wing players not known as playmakers. Coming off of a missed shot from the Wildcats, Perkins runs the ball up the floor and gets Payton the rock on the right wing. There is some real feel displayed here, as Sandfort sells a fake pass to freeze the defense. Perkins makes a timely cut, which our guy recognizes, and Sandfort hits the proverbial “next pass” that leads to a nice drive by Perkins.
Most good shooters who make connective passes often utilize the old shot fake to freeze the defense. Against Ohio State, Payton gets the ball on the right wing again from Perkins. Upon receipt of the catch, Sandfort goes right into his shooting motion—which gets Jamison Battle to jump out of his shoes. Our guy then goes right to the basket, causing it to collapse. Sandfort doesn’t get tunnel vision, nor does he freak out. He takes a couple of dribbles to the rim and hits Ben Krikke (#23) on a hook pass for two easy points.
What I don’t want to do is to make it seem like I feel Payton can become some sort of high-level creator. He has his flaws as a playmaker.
In this NIT matchup against Kansas State, we see where some of those flaws and limitations as a ball handler come to light. Sandfort gets the ball right off the rebound and looks to take it the length of the floor. It’s apparent that he can be sped up when asked to do more off the bounce, as he starts off on the right side of the floor, and then sprints to the left in an attempt to engage the defense. There really isn’t any excuse for this type of turnover, as he dribbles right into a defender. There isn’t any attempt to crossover or get into any maneuver.
Now, there aren’t many plays like this from Sandfort on the season, but there are enough to give scouts and evaluators enough conviction to know Sandfort will be a connective player at best. The good news is that happens to be exactly what teams will need him to be. Again, it’s worth remembering that he increased his minutes on the floor by almost 25% and maintained a turnover percentage of just 10.6.
The Defense
It’s going to be tough to get people to believe that Payton Sandfort can be a plus defender. Even as an upperclassman within the same system, Payton grades out in the 43rd percentile (Average) in overall defense. There are no perfect stats—especially on defense—as most of them say more about the team than the player. Nevertheless, teams won’t be drafting Sandfort to fix defensive concerns, but to play good team defense while being a knock-down shooter.
The trouble with Sandfort on defense is where is knowing where he’ll defend positionally. He has good size, with some length, so maybe guarding some forwards will be how he helps on defense.
In this game against Illinois, Iowa opts to have him defend potential NBA player, Coleman Hawkins. The thought of Payton taking on someone who is a floor spacer makes some sense—especially if they aren’t the best with the ball in their hands. Coleman decides to get a little more brave dribbling the rock being defended by our guy, and gets the door shut on him as he looks to attack the basket. Sandfort sticks on Hawkins’ hip, and forces him to make a jump pass under the basket—something Coleman shouldn’t do on a regular basis.
But, for every forward that can’t attack the rim, there are more in the NBA that can.
There are even forwards that can do it in college too. Let’s go back to the NIT matchup against Kansas State, where Payton lined up across from Arthur Kaluma on this possession. It’s plays like this that point to some possible strength concerns that exists in Payton’s scout.
The Wildcats run Payton through a screen as Kaluma gets the ball at the top of the key. Once Arthur gets the ball back at the right wing, he takes advantage of the space Payton gives on the drive, slips under him, and puts up a pretty reverse layup.
Here is an example of Payton squaring off against more of a wing-sized player in Zach Hicks of Penn State. Hicks clocks in with about the same measurements that Sandfort has: 6’7”, weighing in at 185-ish pounds. He also is close positionally, as opposed to Hawkins and Kaluma.
Penn State goes to Hicks on the right wing, and he immediately looks to attack Payton on the bounce. Zach gets to the middle of the paint but does not get positioning on our guy. Hicks is forced to go into a fadeaway, but Sandfort recognizes that it’s coming. Payton times the timing of the shot perfectly and forces a missed shot. Not a bad play for Sandfort’s defensive promise.
It’s in this clip against Illinois that we can see how Payton will struggle against wings that have above average athleticism, ball handling, and scoring ability. He is matched up with the polarizing Terrence Shannon Jr. here.
Yes, Terrence Shannon Jr. did not score on this play. That’s not the takeaway. TSJ more closely presents how Payton will likely struggle with the speed of wings and bigger guards in the NBA. There are also some switches, which Sandfort will have to get used to—as well as helping off of his assignment to assist in a bad rotation by a teammate. The amount of space Shannon Jr. created on a solid crossover could spell trouble for our guy at the next level.
Curtains
The league will always need shooting, there’s no doubt about it. Payton Sandfort will get a look by a team because of his shooting, there’s no doubt about it. The fact that he can be trusted to make correct reads (including when to shoot and when to pass) gives him a little more separation from some of the other bombers in this class. He also competes on the boards—which is something that the overwhelming majority of NBA players did when they came into the league.
There are real concerns on the defensive side of the floor. What position does he defend? Honestly, that is going to be on a team-by-team, rotation-by-rotation basis. That does hurt his draft stock. There will be teams that are deep with players that can outmuscle and out-athlete him. But, again, an NBA team doesn’t have to get him to be Herb Jones—they just need him to be trusted to not get burned. That level of improvement isn’t off of the table for Payton. The question would then be: Is a team willing to invest in developing that in him?
There is reason to draft Sandfort, due to his firm foundation on the offensive side of the ball. At some point, it’s going to become rational to take an NBA-level shooter despite that he could be an NBA journeyman for several seasons. Those types of picks can create a level of certainty in a scout and in a front office when an owner trusts them to improve the roster. In that case, one firm foundation solidifies another.
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